According to the latest Global Economic Prospects 2011,in 2012, Nepal is expected to have a nominal GDP of US$ 21.6 billion (2005 current prices), population of 31 million, GDP per capita of US$ 697.3, and real per capita GDP growth of 2.1%. Here is an earlier blog post about GEP 2011.
Real GDP growth is expected to be 3.7% and 4% in 2011 and 2012. Exports growth will initially decline to 5.6% and then rise to 7.3% in 2012. Meanwhile, imports growth will decline to 6.3% and then increase to 6.9% in 2012.
Private consumption is expected to contribute 3.3% to GDP growth in 2012, but government consumption is expected to contribute just 0.6%. Fixed investment and net exports are expected to contribute 1.2% of GDP growth and 1.3% of GDP growth in 2012.
As a share of GDP, private consumption is expected to be 75.3% and 74.4% in 2011 and 2012, respectively. Similarly, government consumption as a share of GDP is expected to be 11.1% in 2012; fixed investment 20.6%; change in stocks 7.2%; and total investment 27.9%.
Both exports and imports (as a share of GDP) are expected to decline in 2012. Exports are expected to be 11% of GDP and 9.9% of GDP in 2011 and 2012, respectively. The figures for imports for the same period are 26.1% and 23.7%. It means that trade deficit is expected to increase further. Exchange rate is expected to appreciate, probably due to weak dollar.
|Nepali Macroeconomic Forecasts, 2008-2012|
|Real Expenditure Growth|
|GDP at market prices||5.3||4.7||3.3||3.7||4|
|Contribution to GDP Growth|
|GDP at market prices||-6.7||8.2||18.7||25.1||3.3|
|Share of GDP|
|Change in stocks||12.1||8.4||7.9||7.4||7.2|
|Nominal GDP (USD billions)||11.2||12.6||15.5||20.1||21.6|
|GDP per capita, current USD||388.1||431.1||518.9||661.1||697.3|
|Real per capita GDP growth||3.3||2.7||1.4||1.8||2.1|
|USD Fx rate||73.3||76||73.6||65||67.6|
Source: Global Economic Prospects 2011; 2011 and 2012 are forecasts